On last night’s Q&A program both Alan Tudge MP and Herald Sun editor Andrew Rule seemed to insinuate that home invasions were on the rise in Victoria. Let’s look at the statistics.

There is no offence category under Victorian Crime Stats for ‘home invasions’. However, the number of recorded criminal incidents for ‘Burglary/Break and Enter’ has remained steady.

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However, there does appear to be a gradual uptick in the number of residential aggravate burglaries, but not residential non-aggravated burglaries.

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There are a variety of reasons why this may be the case, including an increased use of weapons during home invasions.

When this is looked at in terms of rate of incidents per 100,000 population (a useful statistic to remove the impact of population growth), the rate of incidents is actually on the decline.

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However, the rate of residential aggravated burglary is  on the increase.

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The number of recorded offences (as opposed to incidents) doesn’t show any increase in the number of offences recorded for burglary / break and enter.

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However, again, residential aggravated burglary offences are increasing.

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So what’s the verdict?

Overall, there isn’t any indication that burglary / break and enter offences are on the rise.

However, there is an indication that residential aggravated burglary offences have increased somewhat. The reasons for this change are likely to do with the a change in the circumstances of offending, rather than an increase in overall crime.

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